Hazard Results and Dissemination

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Model Dissemination

All GEM products are officially released through the GEM Products page. Please visit this page to download the models: https://www.globalquakemodel.org/products.

Model Versions

The following versioning system is used to keep track of updates to the individual models:

  • model version = v[year].[major].[minor]

[year] = the release year of the model. The year is only updated when an entirely new version of the model is released, for example when updated datasets or different modelling approaches are used. An example is the 2016 and 2018 versions of the South America (SAM) model.

[major] = a number that starts at 0 and increases when a major change is made to the model. Major changes include updates to the seismic source or ground motion characterisation that affect the final hazard results but do not constitute an entirely new version of the model. An example is adding the cluster model to the OpenQuake implementation of 2014 conterminous United States model (USA). This number restarts from 0 when an entirely new version of the model is released, i.e. when the [year] is updated.

[minor] = a number that starts at 0 and increases when a minor change is made to the model. Minor changes include bug fixes, restructuring of files, and small changes to the seismic source or ground motion characterisation that do not significantly impact the hazard results. This number restarts from 0 when a new version of the model is released, i.e. when the [year] is updated.

ALS

  • [v2007.0.0] – First version of the model implemented in OpenQuake. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.
    Original model available at: https://github.com/usgs/nshm-ak-2007

ARB

  • [v2018.1.0] – Updated to incorporate seismic sources coming from the Zagros region in western Iran, which were not included in the original ARB model. Sources within a 300km radius of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were taken from the MIE model (from both MIE source model branches) and added to the ARB source model, with weights of 0.5 and 0.5. The GMPEs from the MIE model were applied to these sources. Due to the increase in the number of logic tree branches, hazard results were computed by sampling the logic tree, instead of using a full path enumeration. There is an increase in hazard up to 0.1g PGA in the northern UAE for a 10% PoE in 50 years.

  • [v2018.0.0] – First version of the model implemented in OpenQuake. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.
    OQ input files available at: https://platform.openquake.org/documents/319

AUS

  • [v2018.0.1] – The flag “optimize_same_id_sources” was removed from the job.ini file since this parameter was no longer needed in OpenQuake. The effect on the hazard is small, i.e < 0.03g PGA for 2% PoE in 50 years.

  • [v2018.0.0] – New version of the model released by GA in 2018. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.
    OQ input files available at: https://github.com/GeoscienceAustralia/NSHA2018

CAN

  • [v2015.1.1] - Additional geometries of the Cascadia interface were added. Onshore hazard on the southwest coast of Vancouver Island increased by 1-2%.

  • [v2015.1.0] – A source that was missing from the hybrid model of the southeast quadrant was added. The integration distance for subduction sources was changed to 800 km. The GMPEs were changed to use a new method provided by NRC, in which the GM table for vs30=450 m/s is corrected for the site condition using a site term. The weights of the gmmLT were again changed at the direction of NRC.

  • [v2015.0.1] – Weights in the gmmLT were corrected to correspond with the original NBCC2015. The GMPE assigned to TRT="Subduction Intraslab50" was corrected (it was formerly using the interface GMPEs).

  • [v2015.0.0] – First version of the model implemented in OpenQuake. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.
    Original model available at: http://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/hazard-alea/interpolat/index-en.php

CCA

  • [v2019.0.0] – Updated version of the model developed by GEM. The following changes were made to the source model: updated subduction model for CAM, LAN, PRC and SAM (Colombia-Ecuador segment); and new subduction sources for PAN and LMT; updated gridded seismicity, and fault sources. A new ground motion logic tree was used based on residual analysis between candidate GMPEs and strong motion recordings from the region. In general, the hazard has increased in Puerto Rico and northern Panama, and decreased in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and, southern Panama. OQ input files available through a non-disclosure agreement. See https://www.globalquakemodel.org/product/ccara2019-model

  • [v2018.0.0] – First version of the model developed within the CCARA project. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.
    OQ input files available at: https://platform.openquake.org/documents/324

CEA

CHN

  • [v2015.1.0] - Modified original version to be in terms of Mw instead of Ms. The difference in hazard is small, i.e. <0.05g PGA for 10% PoE in 50 years.

  • [v2015.0.0] – First version of the model implemented in OpenQuake. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.

EUR

  • [v2013.1.0] – Updated to include full coverage in Ukraine and Belarus. The original EUR model only partially covers these countries. Sources from the NWA model (that do not overlap with the sources in EUR) were added to the EUR source model. The main change is a small increase in hazard, notably in Crimea up to 0.03g PGA for 10% PoE in 50 years.

  • [v2013.0.0] – First version of the model. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.
    OQ input files available at: http://www.efehr.org/en/Documentation/specific-hazard-models/europe/overview/

GLD

  • [v2019.0.0] – First version of a model for Greenland.

HAW

  • [v1998.0.1] – Restructured the ground motion logic tree so that all GMPE are listed in one file and weights are assigned by IMT, rather than having separate directories. The hazard results are not affected.

  • [v1998.0.0] – First version of the model implemented in OpenQuake. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1
    Original model available at: https://github.com/usgs/nshm-hi-1998

IDN

IND

  • [v2012.1.0] – Corrected version using GMPE Kanno et al., 2006 for shallow earthquakes instead of version for deep earthquakes. This change affects zones 14, 21, 22, 910, 916, 918 on layer 1 and zones 89, 91, 110, 130, 132 on layer 2. Deep version predicts unrealistically high ground motion values at short distances. Hazard decreases up to 0.6g PGA for 10% PoE in 50 years in parts of the Himalayas. Additionally, on layer 3 the "subduction interface" TRT is replaced with "subduction intraslab". This causes an increase in hazard in Northeast India near the border with Myanmar up to 0.1g PGA for 10% PoE in 50 years.

  • [v2012.0.0] – First version of the model implemented in OpenQuake. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.
    OQ input files available at: https://github.com/nackerley/indian-subcontinent-psha

JPN

  • [v2014.0.0] – First version of the model implemented in OpenQuake. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.
    OQ input files: Not yet released publically. Original model available at: https://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/en/

KOR

  • [v2020.0.0] – New version of the model developed by GEM. The fault system in the South-East of the peninsula is now included in the model and complex multifault ruptures are considered. For the rest of the peninsula, the seismicity is modelled using area sources. The subduction sources are the ones used in the JPN model. The earthquake catalogue and the GMPE logic tree are heavily based on the KIGAM report from 2012.
  • [v2018.0.0] – First version of the model. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.

MEX

  • [v2018.0.0] – First version of the model. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.

MIE

NAF

  • [v2017.1.0] – Updated version of the model. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.
    OQ input files available at: https://platform.openquake.org/documents/261

  • [v2017.0.0] – First version of the model.

NEA

  • [v2018.0.0] – First version of the model. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.

NWA

  • [v2018.0.0] – First version of the model. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.

NZL

PAC

  • [v2018.2.0] – Epistemic uncertainty was added to the subduction source model, varying interface-intraslab cutoff depth, segmentation, Mmax, and magnitude scaling relationship. The subduction Zhao et al. (2006) GMPEs were replaced with Abrahamson et al. (2015). This version corresponds to the published model (Johnson et al., 2020).

  • [v2018.1.0] – The crustal faults were recreated using the fault modeler, with clearer distinctions between categories. The MFDs of crustal sources and some subduction sources were recalibrated using different completeness tables. This version corresponds to the original manuscript submitted to Geophysical Journal International.

  • [v2018.0.0] – First version of the model. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.

PHL

  • [v2018.1.1] - The faults sources were regenerated after a bug fix in the OQ-MBTK. Hazard with a probability of exceedance of 10% in 50 years decreased by <0.1 g near most faults, but in a few sites decreased by up to 0.24 g. Hazard near a few faults in the north increased by up to 0.2 g. This version corresponds to the published model (Peñarubia et al., 2020).

  • [v2018.1.0] – A catalogue provided by PHIVOLCS was merged with the ISC-GEM catalogue, and several new subduction interfaces were added to the model. This required a reclassification of seismicity, and recalibration of crustal sources. We also divided the largest crustal source zone into three zones. The crustal faults were adjusted so that continuous fault traces were linked together into a single fault, and MFDs for faults with Mmax>7 were changed from GR to YC1985. For a probability of exceedance of 10% in 50 years, hazard near faults decreased mostly by 0.2-0.5 g, but up to 0.8 g. Hazard near the added subduction interfaces increased by up to 0.2 g, but near other, recalibrated interfaces, hazard increased by up to 0.4 g. This was the model originally submitted to Earthquake Spectra for publication.

  • [v2018.0.0] - First version of the model created under the PHIVOLCS-GEM collaboration. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.

PNG

SAM

  • [v2020.0.0] – New version of the model developed by GEM. This version incorporates new faults in Colombia, Ecuador, Argentina, and Chile. We also improved catalogue completeness, increased the maximum magnitude in a few area sources, homogenised the spatial pattern of the distributed seismicity and better defined the lower seismogenic depth limits. Subduction sources in the Colombia-Ecuador pacific segment were also revised and a unique segment is now considered for this area. OQ input files available through a non-disclosure agreement. See https://www.globalquakemodel.org/product/south-america-model-2020

  • [v2018.0.1] – Updated version of the model developed by GEM. Updated version of CCA-LAN subduction sources is used, which increases hazard in northeastern Venezuela.

  • [v2018.0.0] – New version of the model developed by GEM. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1. In this version the following modifications were included to the source model: a new subduction model for Nazca subduction, and LAN subduction from CCA model; a reviewed fault model with strong implications for Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia and updated gridded seismicity model. The GMM for the stable shallow crust region was modified, replacing Tavakoli and Pezeshk (2005) and Drouet (2015) with Pezeshk et al. (2011) and Silva et al. (2002). A ground motion logic tree for LAN (CCA model) is used.

  • [v2016.0.0] – First version of the model developed within the SARA project. OQ input files available at: https://platform.openquake.org/documents/323

SEA

  • [v2018.0.1] – Corrected source model. Some gridded seismicity sources were missing is West Malaysia and epistemic uncertainty was not being applied correctly to one source. The hazard slightly increases up to 0.02g PGA for 10% PoE in 50 years in West Malaysia.
    OQ input files available at: https://platform.openquake.org/documents/318

  • [v2018.0.0] – First version of the model. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.

SSA

TEM

UCF

  • [v2014.0.0] – First version of the model implemented in OpenQuake. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.
    Original model available at: https://github.com/opensha/opensha-ucerf3

USA

  • [v2014.1.0] – Update to the model to include the cluster model. Hazard increases up to 0.06g PGA in New Madrid for 10% PoE in 50 years.
    Original model available at: https://github.com/usgs/nshm-cous-2014

  • [v2014.0.0] – Version of the model released by the USGS in 2014. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.

WAF

ZAF

  • [v2018.0.1] – Updated version following the model described in Midzi et al., 2020. Two fault sources were removed as suggested by the authors, and two area sources were added to the logic tree that were previously missing. The changes in hazard are small, up to 0.02g PGA for 10% PoE in 50 years along the border with Botswana. OQ input files available at: https://platform.openquake.org/documents/322

  • [v2018.0.0] – First version of the model. This version was used in the GEM Global Seismic Hazard Map v2018.1.