Model Developers and References

Alaska, USA [ALS] - 2007
  • Developed by the United States Geological Survey and converted into the OpenQuake engine by GEM.
  • Authors: R.L. Wesson, O.S. Boyd, C.S. Mueller, C.G. Bufe, A.D. Frankel, M.D. Petersen
  • Website:
  • Publications:
    • R.L. Wesson et al., “Revision of time-Independent probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Alaska,” U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report 2007–1043.
Arabian Peninsula [ARB] - 2018
  • Developed by the Saudi Geological Survey and converted into the OpenQuake engine by GEM.
  • Authors: H. Zahran, V. Sokolov, S. El-Hadidy Youssef, W. W. Alraddadi, M. J. Roobol, I. C. F. Stewart, M. El-Hadidy
  • Website:
  • Publications:
    • V. Sokolov et al., “Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Saudi Arabia using spatially smoothed seismicity and analysis of hazard uncertainty,” Bull Earthquake Eng, vol. 15, no. 7, pp. 2695–2735, Jul. 2017.
    • H. M. Zahran et al., “Preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia based on combined areal source model: Monte Carlo approach and sensitivity analyses,” Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, vol. 77, pp. 453–468, Oct. 2015.
    • H. M. Zahran et al., “On the development of a seismic source zonation model for seismic hazard assessment in western Saudi Arabia,” J Seismol, vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 747–769, Jul. 2016.
Australia [AUS] - 2018
  • Developed by Geoscience Australia.
  • Authors: T. Allen, J. Griffin, M. Leonard, D. Clark, H. Ghasemi
  • Website:
  • Publications:
    • T. Allen et al., "The 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment for Australia: model overview," Geoscience Australia Record 2018/27, Canberra, doi: 10.11636/Record.2018.027.
    • T. Allen et al., "The 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment for Australia: model input files," Geoscience Australia Record 2018/32, Canberra, doi: 10.11636/Record.2018.032.
Canada [CAN] - 2015
  • Developed by Natural Resources Canada, partly adjusted to the OpenQuake engine by GEM.
  • Authors: J. Adams, S. Halchuk, T. Allen, G. Rogers
  • Website:
  • Publications:
    • S. Halchuk et al., “Fifth Generation Seismic Hazard Model Input Files as Proposed to Produce Values for the 2015 National Building Code of Canada,” Geological Survey of Canada, Open File 7576, 2014.
Caribbean and Central America [CCA] - 2018
  • Developed within the project CCARA. Cuba and Puerto Rico were included a posteriori by GEM. Organisations involved in CCARA: GEM - University of Costa Rica, Costa Rica - Costa Rican Institute of Electricity, Costa Rica - Nicaraguan Institute of Territorial Studies, Nicaragua - Catholic University of El Salvador, El Salvador - Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, El Salvador - Panama University, Panama.
  • Authors: J. Garcia-Pelaez, R. Gee, R. Styron, V. Poggi
  • Website:
Central Asia [CEA] - 2018
  • Developed within the EMCA project, coordinated by the Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany. Organisations involved: Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan - Institute of Geophysical Research, Kazakhstan - International University of Innovation Technologies, Kyrgyzstan - Kyrgyzstan Institute of Seismology, Kyrgyzstan - Central-Asian Institute of Applied Geosciences, Kyrgyzstan - Institute of Mechanics and Seismic Stability of Structures of the Academy of Sciences of Uzbekistan, Uzbekistan - Mavlyanov Institute of Seismology, Uzbekistan.
  • Authors: S. Ullah, D. Bindi, M. Pilz, L. Danciu, G.A. Weatherill, E. Zuccolo, A. Ischuk, N.N. Mikhailova, K. Abdrakhmatov, S. Parolai, K. Fleming
  • Website:
  • Publications:
    • S. Ullah et al., “Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Central Asia,” Ann. Geophys., vol. 58, no. 1, Apr. 2015.
China [CHN] - 2015
  • Developed by the Institute of Geophysics of the China Earthquake Administration and converted into the OpenQuake engine by Changlong Li within a collaboration between the Institute of Geophysics of the China Earthquake Administration, the Swiss Seismological Service, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland and GEM.
  • Authors: M. Gao, G. Chen, F. Xie, X. Xu, X. Li, Y. Yu, S. Li, B. Zhou, H. Pan, Y. Lu, F. Zhao, J. Wu
  • Website:
  • Publications:
    • General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China, China National Standardization Management Committee. 2015. China seismic zoning map (in Chinese). GB 18306-2015.
Europe [EUR] - 2013
  • Developed within the EU-funded SHARE project, coordinated by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland. Organisations involved: Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany - The National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Italy - Joseph Fourier University, France - University of Pavia, Italy - Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece - The French Geological Survey, France - Center of Research in Astronomy, Astrophysics, and Geophysics, Algeria - Instituto Superior Tecnico, Portugal Bogazici University, Turkey - National Laboratory for Civil Engineering, Portugal - Middle East Technical University, Turkey - Montenegro Seismological Observatory, Montenegro - Natural Environment Research Council, United Kingdom - National Institute for Earth Physics, Romania - National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece - Norwegian Seismic Array, Norway - Royal Observatory of Belgium, Belgium. Updated version of the model to be released in 2020.
  • Authors: J. Woessner, L. Danciu, D. Giardini, H. Crowley, F. Cotton, G. Grünthal, G. Valensise, R. Arvidsson, R. Basili, M. Betül Demircioglu, S. Hiemer, Carlo Meletti, R. W. Musson, A.N. Rovida, K, Sesetyan, M. Stucchi
  • Website:
  • Publications:
    • J. Woessner et al., “The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results,” Bull Earthquake Eng, vol. 13, no. 12, pp. 3553–3596, Jul. 2015.
    • Giardini et al "Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE): Online Data Resource", doi: 10.12686/SED-00000001-SHARE, 2013.
Hawaii, USA [HAW] - 1998
  • Developed by the United States Geological Survey and converted into the OpenQuake engine by GEM.
  • Authors: F. W. Klein, A.D. Frankel, C.S. Mueller, R.L. Wesson, P.G. Okubo
  • Website:
  • Publications:
    • F. W. Klein, et al. “Seismic Hazard in Hawaii: High Rate of Large Earthquakes and Probabilistic Ground-Motion Maps,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 91, no. 3, pp. 479–498, Jun. 2001.
Indonesia [IDN] - 2017
  • Seismic hazard model for Indonesia created by the Team for Updating Seismic Hazard Maps of Indonesia. The team belongs to the National Center for Earthquake Studies under the Center for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements of the Ministry of Public Works and People Housing. Ministries involved: Ministry of Public Works and People Housing; Ministry of Energy and Mineral resources; Ministry of Transportation; Ministry of Research, Technology and Higher Education; and National Disaster Management Authority of Indonesia. Organisations involved: Bureau of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics; Indonesian Research Institute; Geospatial Information Agency; Center for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements; Centre of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation; Indonesian Academy of Sciences; Bandung Institute of Technology; University of Indonesia; University of Gajah Mada; University of Diponegoro; Indonesian Society for Geotechnical Engineering; and Indonesian Disaster Expert Association. The team collaborated internationally with Geoscience Australia, Australia.
  • Authors: M. Irsyam., L. Faizal, D. Natawidjaja, I. Meilano, S. Widiyantoro, W. Triyoso, A. Rudiyanto, S. Hidayati, M. Asrurifak, M. Ridwan, P. Cummins
  • Publications:
    • M. Irsyam, S. Widiyantoro, D. Natawidjaja, I. Meilano, A. Rudiyanto, S. Hidayati, W. Triyoso, N. R. Hanifa, D. Djarwadi, L. Faizal, Sunarjito (editor), Team for Updating of Seismic Hazard Maps of Indonesia 2017. 2017. Earthquake Source and Hazard Maps of Indonesia 2017. National Center for Earthquake Studies (PusGen), Research Center for Housing and Human Settlement, Directorate General for Research and Development, Ministry oof Public Works and People Housing, ISBN 978-602-5489-01-3. (in Indonesian)
    • Irsyam M, Cummins PR, Asrurifak M, et al. Development of the 2017 national seismic hazard maps of Indonesia. Earthquake Spectra. 2020;36:112-136. doi:10.1177/8755293020951206
India and surroundings [IND] - 2012
  • Developed by Nath and Thingbaijam (2012), revised and implemented in OpenQuake by N. Ackerley (Natural Resources Canada).
  • Authors: N. Ackerley, K.K.S. Thingbaijam, S.K. Nath
  • Publications:
    • Nath, S. K., and K. K. S. Thingbaijam. "Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of India." Seismological Research Letters 83.1 (2012): 135-149.
Japan [JPN] - 2014
  • Developed by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion and converted into the OpenQuake engine format within a collaboration between the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Japan, and GEM.
  • Authors: H. Fujiwara, N. Morikawa, S. Kawai, S. Aoi, S. Senna, T. Maeda, H. Azuma, K. X. Hao, A. Iwaki, K. Wakamatsu, M. Imoto, N. Hasegawa, T. Okumura, T. Hayakawa, M. Takahashi
  • Website:
  • Publications:
    • H. Fujiwara et al., “Technical reports on national seismic hazard maps for Japan,” Technical Note of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience 336, 2009.
    • H. Fujiwara et al., “Improved seismic hazard assessment after the 2011 great East Japan earthquake,” Technical Note of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience 399, (in Japanese) 2015.
Korean Peninsula [KOR] - 2018
Mexico [MEX] - 2018
Middle East [MIE] - 2016
  • Developed within the EMME project, jointly coordinated by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland, and the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Turkey. Institutions involved: International Institute for Earthquake Engineering ans Seismology, Iran; Middle East Technical University, Turkey; Sakarya University, Turkey; University of Peshawar, Pakistan; Yarmouk University, Jordan; American University of Beirut, Lebanon; Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Georgia; National Academy of Sciences, Armenia; National Academy of Sciences, Azerbaijan.
  • Authors: D. Giardini, L. Danciu, M. Erdik, K. Sesetyan, MB Demircioğlu, S. Akkar, L. Gulen, M. Zare, S. Adamia, A. Ansari, A. Arakelyan, A. Askan, M. Avanesyan, H. Babayan, T. Chelidze, R. Durgaryan, A. Elias, H. Hamzehloo, K. Hessami, D. Kalafat, O. Kale, A. Karakhanyan, MA. Khan, T. Mamadli, M. Al-Qarouti, M. Sayab, N. Tsereteli, M. Utkucu, O. Varazanashvili, M. Waseem, H. Yalçın, MT. Yılmaz
  • Website:
  • Publications:
    • L. Danciu, Ö. Kale, and S. Akkar, “The 2014 Earthquake Model of the Middle East: ground motion model and uncertainties”, Bull Earthquake Eng (2018) 16:3497–3533.
    • L. Danciu et al., “The 2014 Earthquake Model of the Middle East: seismogenic sources”, Bull Earthquake Eng (2018) 16:3465–3496.
    • K. Sesetyan et al., "The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results", Bull Earthquake Eng (2018) 16:3535–3566
Northern Africa [NAF] - 2018
  • Developed by GEM.
  • Authors: V. Poggi, J. Garcia-Pelaez, R. Styron, M. Pagani, R. Gee
  • Website:
  • Publications:
    • Poggi, V., Garcia-Peláez, J., Styron, R. et al. (2020) A probabilistic seismic hazard model for North Africa. Bull Earthquake Eng.
Northeastern Asia [NEA] - 2018
Northwestern Asia [NWA] - 2018
New Zealand [NZL] - 2010 - corrected
  • GNS Science led the development of the model and converted it into the OpenQuake engine.
  • Authors: E.R. Abbott, N. Horspool, M. Gerstenberger, R. Huso, C. Van Houtte, G. McVerry, S. Canessa
  • Authors (2010 model): M. Stirling, G. McVerry, M. Gerstenberger, N. Litchfield, R. Van Dissen, K. Berryman, P. Barnes, L. Wallace, P. Villamor, R. Langridge, G. Lamarche, S. Nodder, M. Reyners, B. Bradley, D. Rhoades, W. Smith, A. Nicol, J. Pettinga, K. Clark, K. Jacobs)
  • Website:
  • Publications:
    • Stirling, M. W. , McVerry, G. H. , Gerstenberger, M. C. , Litchfield, N. J. , Van Dissen, R. J. , Berryman, K. R. , Barnes, P. , Wallace, L. M. , Villamor, P. , Langridge, R. M. , Lamarche, G. , Nodder, S. , Reyners, M. E. , Bradley, B. , Rhoades, D. A. , Smith, W. D. , Nicol, A. , Pettinga, J. , Clark, K. J. , and Jacobs, K., (2012) “National Seismic Hazard Model for New Zealand: 2010 Update,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 102, no. 4, pp. 1514–1542, Aug. 2012.
Pacific Islands [PAC] - 2018
Philippines [PHL] - 2017-2018
  • Developed jointly by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology and GEM.
  • Authors: PHIVOLCS, K. Johnson, R. Styron
  • Website: and
  • Publications:
    • PHIVOLCS, "The Philippine Earthquake Model," 2017.
    • Peñarubia, H.C., Johnson, K.L., Styron, R.H., Bacolcol, T.C., Sevilla, W.I.G., Perez, J.S., Bonita, J.D., Narag, I.C., Solidum Jr, R.U., Pagani, M.M. and Allen, T.I., 2020. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis model for the Philippines. Earthquake Spectra, p.8755293019900521
Papua New Guinea [PNG] - 2016
  • Developed within a collaboration between the Port Moresby Geophysical Observatory and Geoscience Australia.
  • Authors: H. Ghasemi, C. McKee, M. Leonard, P. Cummins, M. Moihoi, S. Spiliopoulos, F. Taranu, E. Buri
  • Publications:
    • Ghasemi et al., "Probabilistic seismic hazard map of Papua New Guinea." Natural Hazards vol. 81, no. 2 , pp. 1003-1025, Jan. 2016.
South America [SAM] - 2018
  • Initially developed within the SARA project and updated by GEM. Organisations involved: GEM, Colombian Geological Survey, Colombia - National University of Colombia, Colombia - University of Valle, Colombia - Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research, Venezuela - University of Merida, Venezuela - National Observatory, Brazil, Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, Brazil - Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil - National Polytechnic University, Ecuador - San Calixto Observatory - Bolivia - University of Chile, Chile - University of Concepción, Chile - Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Chile - Research Center for Disaster Risk Management, Chile - Peruvian Geological Service, Peru - University of San Luis, Argentina - University of Antofagasta, Argentina - National Institute of Seismic Prevention, Argentina - National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Italy.
  • Authors: J. Garcia-Pelaez, M. Pagani, K. Johnson, R. Styron, V. Poggi
  • Website:
Continental Southeastern Asia [SEA] - 2018
  • Developed by the Earth Observatory of Singapore and Mahidol University.
  • Authors: C.-H. Chan, T. Ornthammarath
  • Publications:
    • Ornthammarath T, Warnitchai P, Chan C-H, Wang Y, Shi X, Nguyen PH, Nguyen JM, Kosuwan Sand Thant M (2020) Probabilistic Seismic hazard assessments for Northern Southeast Asia (Indochina): Smooth seismicity approach. Earthquake Spectra 36(S1): 69–90.
Sub-Saharan Africa [SSA] - 2018
  • Developed by GEM in collaboration with AfricaArray within the project SSAHARA.
  • Authors: V. Poggi, R. Durrheim, G.M. Tuluka, G.A. Weatherill, R. Gee, M. Pagani, A. Nyblade, D. Delvaux
  • Website:
  • Publications:
    • V. Poggi et al., “Assessing seismic hazard of the East African Rift: a pilot study from GEM and AfricaArray,” Bull Earthquake Eng, vol 15, no. 11, pp. 4499–4529, November 2017.
Taiwan [TEM] - 2015
  • Developed within the Taiwan Earthquake Model initiative, a collaboration between various Taiwanese research institutions.
  • Authors: Y.-J. Wang, C.-H. Chan, Y.-T. Lee, K.-F. Ma, J.-H. Shyu, R.-J. Rau, C.-T. Cheng
  • Website:
  • Publications:
    • Wang et al., "Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Taiwan," Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 27, no. 3, 325–340, doi: 10.3319/ TAO.2016.05.03.01(TEM)
California, USA [UCF] - 2014
  • Developed within a project supported by the United States Geological Survey, the Southern California Earthquake Center, the California Geological Survey and the California Earthquake Authority. The model was converted into the OpenQuake engine by GEM.
  • Authors: E.H. Field, G.P. Biasi, P. Bird, T.E. Dawson, K.R. Felzer, D.D. Jackson, K.M. Johnson, T.H. Jordan, C. Madden, A.J. Michael, K.R. Milner, M.T. Page, T. Parsons, P.M. Powers, B.E. Shaw, W.R. Thatcher, R.J. Weldon II, Y. Zeng
  • Website:
  • Publications:
    • E.H. Field et al., “Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The Time‐Independent Model,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 104, no. 3, pp. 1122–1180, Jun. 2014.
Conterminous United States of America [USA] - 2014
  • Developed by the United States Geological Survey and converted into the OpenQuake engine by GEM.
  • Authors: M.D. Petersen, M.P. Moschetti, P.M. Powers, C.S. Mueller, K. M. Haller, A.D. Frankel, Y. Zeng, S. Rezaeian, S.C. Harmsen, O.S. Boyd, E.H. Field, R. Chen, K.S. Rukstales, N. Luco, R.L. Wheeler, R.A. Williams, A.H. Olsen
  • Website:
  • Publications
    • M. D. Petersen et al., “Documentation for the 2014 update of the United States national seismic hazard maps,” U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report 2014–1091, 2014.
Western Africa [WAF] - 2018
South Africa [ZAF] - 2018
  • Developed by the Council of Geoscience, South Africa.
  • Authors : V. Midzi, B. Manzunzu, T. Mulabisana, B.S. Zulu, T. Pule, S. Myendeki, G. W. Rathod
  • Website:
  • Publications:
    • Midzi, V., Manzunzu, B., Mulabisana, T., Zulu, B.S., Pule, T., and Myendeki, S. (2020) Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for South Africa. Journal of African Earth Sciences, Volume 162, February 2020